First-time and floating: How 140,000 Hong Kongers could swing seats at the next UK General Election

Hong Kong Watch releases new research today which estimates that there could be around 140,000 people from Hong Kong who will be eligible voters at the UK’s next General Election.

Hong Kong BNOs are first-time and floating voters and could swing key seats for the three main political parties. Crucially, the BNO visa does not prescribe where holders should move to and it is not a requirement of the visa to report where one is living.

Hong Kong Watch has produced briefings covering the top-10 target seats based on BNO dispersion for the Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats. 

Those who hold a British National (Overseas) passport are entitled to register as voters in respect of all UK elections, provided that they also fulfil the age and residence requirements for such registration and are not subject to any other legal incapacity.

Four of the top-five constituencies that Hong Kongers are moving to are currently held by Labour: Salford and Eccles; Manchester Central; Birmingham, Ladywood; and Poplar and Limehouse.

At the time of writing this research there were at least two ministers who stand to lose their jobs if they do not gain the support of the Hong Kong BNO community at the next election: Felicity Buchan MP, the Parliamentary Under Secretary of State in the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (her portfolio includes responsibility for Hong Kong BNOs), and Paul Scully MP, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology. Paul Scully MP stepped down from his position on 13 November 2023.

The Conservative Party briefing can be read here.

The Labour Party briefing can be read here.

The Liberal Democrats briefing can be read here.

Sam Goodman, Hong Kong Watch’s Director of Policy and Advocacy said: 

“All political parties in the UK should take note of this significant new cohort of voters from Hong Kong who have never before voted in a General Election. Voter registration is high among this cohort and we urge all parties to listen to the needs of Hong Kongers in the UK and back these with clear policies.

If parties at the next General Election offer a solid policy platform for new arrivals from Hong Kong our research shows that their support could help the parties pick up key target seats across the UK.”

Hong Kongers concentrated in south and southwest London

There are large concentrations of Hong Kongers in south and southwest London: Wimbledon, Carshalton and Wallington, Sutton and Cheam, Richmond Park. These seats are battlegrounds between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

In the constituency of the Cities of London and Westminster the BNO voting population will be well over 1,000. Nickie Aiken MP, who holds a 9% majority, will need to appeal to the BNO vote. Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green, and Chipping Barnet all have significant BNO populations which incumbents and candidates would do well to seek the support of.

The commuter belt constituencies of Guildford, Reading West, Wokingham, South Cambridgeshire, and Watford, all currently held by the Conservatives, could be swung by the Hong Konger vote.

Warrington as a key battleground between Labour and the Conservatives

Warrington (seats North and South) will be a key battleground for Labour and the Conservatives which Hong Kongers will impact. In Warrington South (Andy Carter MP, Conservative), there will be more voting BNOs than the margin of victory in 2019. In Warrington North (Charlotte Nichols MP), the size of the BNO voting population is roughly the same as the incumbent’s margin of victory in 2019.

Over 25,000 Hong Kongers are estimated to have moved to Manchester over the past three years, with another 10,000 expected to move to the Greater Manchester region by autumn 2024. Heywood and Middleton (becoming Heywood and Middleton North) and Altrincham and Sale West, both of which have a Conservative incumbent, and both of whom – Chris Clarkson MP and Sir Graham Brady MP – have said they will not be standing for re-election, will have sizeable BNO voting populations which could swing these seats. Cheadle, south of Manchester, held by Mary Robinson MP, will also be impacted by the influx of Hong Kongers.

香港監察新研究分析14萬港人首投族如何撼動下屆英國大選議席 呼籲各黨派提出政策支援在英港人需求

香港監察今日發表新研究，推算約有14萬名香港人符合資格成為下屆英國大選選民。

香港BNO是首次投票的搖擺選民，能夠撼動三大政黨的關鍵議席。非常重要的是，BNO簽證並沒規定持有人應移居到哪裏，也沒要求報告居住地點。

香港監察根據BNO人口分布，分別製作了涵蓋英國保守黨、工黨和自由民主黨頭10個目標議席的簡報。

BNO護照持有人只要符合選民登記的年齡和居留要求，且不存在任何其他法律上無行為能力的情況，就有權登記成為所有英國選舉的選民。

香港人移居的頭五個英國國會選區中有四個目前由工黨把持：索爾福德和埃克爾斯（Salford and Eccles）、中曼徹斯特（Manchester Central）、伯明翰萊迪伍德（Birmingham, Ladywood），以及波普拉和灰岩樓（Poplar and Limehouse）。

如果在下屆大選中得不到香港BNO社區的支持，至少有兩名大臣將失去工作：職責包括香港BNO的地方發展、房屋及社區部（Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities）政務次官Felicity Buchan MP和科學、創新及科技部（Department for Science, Innovation and Technology）政務次官Paul Scully MP。

請在此處閱讀保守黨簡報。

請在此處閱讀工黨簡報。

請在此處閱讀自由民主黨簡報。

香港監察政策及倡議總監Sam Goodman表示：

「所有英國政黨都應關注這群以前從未在大選中投票的重要香港選民。這新群體的選民登記率高，我們呼籲各黨派聆聽在英港人的需求，並提出明確政策支援這些需求。

我們的研究顯示，如果政黨在下屆大選中為香港新移民制訂紮實的政綱，港人的支持有助相關政黨贏取英國各選區的關鍵目標議席。」