Analysis: Why Hong Kong's decision to suspend the Legislative Council elections is unnecessary and an assault on freedoms
Debunking the Hong Kong SAR’s COVID case for postponing the Legislative Council Elections
Carrie Lam today announced that the Hong Kong Legislative Council elections would be postponed by one year. This not only totally unnecessary, but an assault on fundamental freedoms. Other governments have shown that Hong Kong Government do not need to cancel the elections for a year to guard against the public health threat. This decision to consider postponing Legislative Council elections for a year is driven by fear of an opposition pro-democracy majority in the Legislative Council for the first time since the handover, and by fears that attempts to disqualify and arrest pro-democracy candidates under the National Security Law will be met by further sanctions from the international community.
Hong Kong has recorded over a 100 daily cases for the last five days running; however, its total recorded case numbers remain substantially low compared to most comparable countries or regions.
The city’s total number of recorded cases is lower than South Korea, North Macedonia, Serbia, Poland, and Singapore, who have all recently held elections. While Hong Kong’s number of daily recorded cases is currently lower compared to the numbers recorded Poland and Singapore recorded on the respective dates they held elections. These countries with higher reported daily COVID case numbers and total COVID case numbers have demonstrated that elections can be held safely and successfully with high turnouts in the middle of the current pandemic.
Background
The Hong Kong Government in discussion with the Chinese Communist Party has postponed the upcoming Legislative Council elections in September by a year, supposedly on public health grounds.
This follows the unilateral introduction by Beijing of a National Security Law in Hong Kong, which gives authorities the power to imprison pro-democracy activists and lawmakers under vague charges including ‘subversion’, ‘succession’, ‘terrorism’, and ‘colluding with foreign political forces’.
The new law also follows the Hong Kong government’s decision to disqualify 12 opposition lawmakers on 30 July 2020.
Countries that have held elections during the COVID crisis
The claim by pro-Beijing lawmakers and the Hong Kong Government that elections cannot be held safely due to rising cases of COVID within the city can easily be discredited by analysing countries that have recently held elections and comparing the total and daily case numbers.
France
France held two rounds of municipal elections on 15th March and 28th June where over 26 million and nearly 19 million people voted in each respective round. Copied below are the daily and total COVID case numbers on the day the elections were held:
Municipal Elections (1st Round) 15th March
Daily cases: 924
Total cases: 5, 423
Municipal Elections (2nd Round) 28th June
Daily cases: 522
Total cases: 163, 980
South Korea
South Korea held legislative elections on 15th April where over 29 million people voted. Copied below are the daily and total COVID case numbers on the day the election was held:
Legislative Council Elections 15th April 2020
Daily cases: 27
Total cases: 10, 591
Serbia
Serbia held parliamentary elections on 21st June where over 3.2 million people voted. Copied below are the daily and total COVID case numbers on the day the election was held:
Parliamentary Elections 21st June
Daily cases: 91
Total cases: 12, 894
Poland
Poland recently held two rounds of presidential elections where 49 million people voted in over two rounds held on 28th June and 13th July. Copied below are the daily and total COVID case numbers for the day the elections were held:
Presidential Election (1st Round) 28th June
Daily cases: 193
Total cases: 33, 907
Presidential Election (2nd Round) 15th July
Daily cases: 299
Total cases: 38, 190
Croatia
Croatia held parliamentary elections on 5th July where over 1.7 million people voted. Copied below are the daily and total COVID case numbers for the day elections were held:
Parliamentary Elections 5th July
D: 57
T: 3, 151
Singapore
Singapore held a General Election on 10th July in which over 2.4 million people voted. Copied below are the daily and total case numbers for the day the election was held:
General Election 10th July
Daily cases: 451
Total cases: 38, 965
North Macedonia
North Macedonia held parliamentary elections on 15th July in which 943,750 people voted. Copied below are the daily and total case numbers for the day the election was held:
Parliamentary Elections 15th July
Daily cases: 100
Total cases: 4,157
How does Hong Kong compare?
Hong Kong has recorded over a 100 daily cases for the last five days running; however, its overall case numbers remain substantially low compared to most other comparable countries or regions.
The city’s total number of recorded cases is lower than South Korea, North Macedonia, Serbia, Poland, and Singapore, who have all recently held elections. While Hong Kong’s number of daily recorded cases is currently lower compared to the numbers recorded Poland and Singapore recorded on the respective dates they held elections.
Hong Kong’s case rates as of 27th July 2020
Daily cases: 145
Total cases: 2,779
What’s really behind the postponement?
Other countries with higher reported daily COVID case numbers and total COVID case numbers have demonstrated that elections can be held safely and successfully with high turnouts in the middle of the current pandemic.
So, what is really behind the Hong Kong Government’s plan to delay Legislative Council Elections until September 2021?
First, it is worried about the very real prospect of an opposition majority in the Legislative Council for the first time since the handover.
Pro-democracy parties won a landslide in the District Council Elections in November 2019 and the high turnout of over 600,000 Hong Kongers in the recent primaries suggests that they could also be on course for a majority in the Legislative Council elections. Alongside choosing to disqualify candidates, this is another way of avoiding accountability at the ballot box.
Second, the Hong Kong Government and the Chinese Communist Party are worried about further direct or indirect sanctions from the international community in response to the National Security Law.
In recent weeks like-minded international partners including the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, have taken action to the introduction of the National Security Law, including suspending their extradition treaties, extending export controls, introducing measures to make it easier for Hong Kongers to study and work abroad, and in the case of the US passed a sanctions bill.
The international community must consider a proportionate reaction to the attack on freedoms.